The Traders Arena Blog

Last year the Orioles finished in the cellar of the AL East with a record of 68-93.. It really was not even fair for the Orioles last year, having a rare division with 4 teams over 85 wins each, with 2 teams over 90 wins. However, it was not long ago when the Baltimore Orioles were in fact in 1st place of that powerhouse AL East. They were in first for the month of April and some of May, and then they had dropped off. People talked how they were surprising teams, little did they know that the Rays would in fact be the team to really surprise. The Orioles have made a few moves this off-season, as well as trying to make a push for local star player, Mark Texeira. They recently signed SP Mark Hendrickson to a deal to get an experienced pitcher on their staff. They are still in the market to add 1 more pitcher says their GM. They also traded C Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for Utility Player Ryan Freel. Freel may have a hard time finding a position, however since he plays OF and IF, he should be used early and often. The Orioles have some great prospects to look forward to in the upcoming years, most notably Matt Wieters. Wieters is a near MLB ready talent who many say will become the next great catcher in the game. He is highly touted and with the trade of Ramon Hernandez, it seems like he will be the opening day starter. They also have some nice pitching prospects in Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta.

Here is their projected position players this year:

C: Matt Wieters: As mentioned above, Wieters is a top 5 prospect. He has a great bat and should be one of the best hitting catchers in the years to come. He will likely be the starter this year after the Hernandez trade and no one is in his path. He could realistically hit over 20 HRs this year and have a very good season. He has a few good hitters in front of him like Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff to help his skills.

1B: Aubrey Huff: Aubrey had a great year last year, surprising some, hitting .304 with 32 HR and 108 RBI. That is a very respectable season from a 1B and if he can put those numbers up again, he will help his team for sure. He will be a threat in the middle of their order.

2B: Brian Roberts: Roberts, who was in trade talks to the Cubs all of last year, had a down year last year. He hit just below .300 with 9 HRs and 50+ RBI. Not a great season but not terrible. He did have 40 SB though however and is a staple at the top of their lineup.

SS: Cezar Isturis: I am not a big fan of him so I would like to see them try out Ryan Freel in the position since he is a utility man.

3B: Melvin Mora:  Mora had another decent season last year hitting in the 280s, with 23 HR and 100+ RBI. A very good season by Mora will be needed this year if they expect to contend.

OF: Adam Jones, Luke Scott, Nick Markakis: Nick Markakis quietly becoming a top OF in the AL. He had over 15 assists in the OF last year in addition to hitting  .306 with 20 HR and 87 RBI. He will be a star for the upcoming years and has a great future. Adam Jones was a top prospect for the Mariners and was traded to the Orioles in the Erik Bedard deal. He is still raw and learning, but he is expected to put up some big numbers in the next few years. Luke Scott is a veteran who had a decent year last year hitting in the .240s with 23 HR and 60+ RBI, not great, but again not terrible.

Here is their projected pitching rotation:

SP: Jeremy Guthrie, Greg Olson, Mark Hendrickson, Radhames Liz, Chris Waters/Matt Albers: The Orioles are still looking to get another veteran pitcher to help out this young staff. Jeremy Guthrie and Liz are projected to be nice pitchers in a few years but are still young and raw. This experience should help them out a bit. The rest of their rotation is not too good, but in the next year or two will get some help when Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta, both top prospects in the majors, come up and help.

CL: George Sherrill: Sherrill last year surprised many by having 30+ saves. He started out very hot, got injured and had a good season. He was practically a throw-in from the Bedard trade and made that pay of dividends. He is a good option at closer although he should cherish the opportunities he gets as their will not be that many.

My expectation for the team: They probably will finish near or in the cellar again this year. The AL East got even stronger this year with the Yankees acquisitions and I can not see the Orioles being able to compete against the Yanks, Red Sox, or Rays.  If they got to 75 wins, I would be surprised.

ESPN’s Buster Olney is reporting that Brian Fuentes has signed a 2 year deal with the Angels. Terms of the contract are not available yet but will update when more info is in. Fuentes had a nice rebound season last year with over 30 saves for the dismal Rockies. He was displaced as closer during their magical 2007 run by Manny Corpas. When Corpas underperformed this year Fuentes was back in the mix and became a top closing option. He has had 3 30 save seasons in the past 4 years and is a hard throwing lefty. He is a good option for the Angels, but the deal probably will be around 2 years 25 million. They might as well have signed Francisco Rodrigez back for the extra year and a bit extra, seeing they did not sign Texeira.

Update: The contract also comes with a 2011 club option. Financial terms were not released in the press release. As compensation for signing the type A free agent, the Rockies receive the 33rd pick in the draft, as well as a sandwich supplemental pick.

The Cubs are close to trading Mark DeRosa to the Indians in exchange for 2 or 3 young pitchers. The pitchers have not been named but they must have some good upside since the Cubs have stated that they did not want to move DeRosa. More details when they come in… In addition, the Cubs have signed Aaron Miles to a 2 year deal which would allow them to move DeRosa, as they would have another 2B/Utilit Infielder. Miles hit .318 last year and was a bargain last year at 1.4 MM. This deal is 2 years at 4.9 MM.

Update: The deal is official for 3 minor league pitchers. This lets them move 5.5 million net dollars after their recent deals. This could mean Milton Bradley’s deal is imminent.

Buster Olney reports that Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu may need to settle for 1 year deals. This is good for the A’s andRays who are not looking to spend a ton for them, and would only want to go a maximum of 2 years anyways.

The Yankees still do want Andy Pettite back, but are firm on their 10 million dollar offer. They have leverage on Andy, in the fact that they know he wants to pitch again in NY and in the new stadium. I would suspect a deal gets done within 1-2 weeks.

The latest on Derek Lowe is that the deal is probably inevitable. However, they will probably need to up the offer, but they would like to keep it under 15 million a year. They also do not want to guarantee a 4th year as that would take him into his 40’s. The Mets have stated that they will only likely sign 1 out of 3 out of the group of Lowe, Perez, Wolf.

A deal for Milton Bradley to the Cubs appears imminent. By moving Marquis, the Cubs cleared 5 million dollars and can now sign Bradley. Bradley will add the left handed bat that they need, as well as an OF. Bradley had a career year last year, but did get hurt in the end. He is a nice pickup for the Cubs, especially with that great rotation they have.

Willy Taveras has officially signed with the Reds, 2 years 6.25 MM. Taveras set a career high last year and had 68 steals.

Ned Colletti has been contacted by Scott Boras about free agent Manny Ramirez. Not surprising, as Boras is now the one feeling pressure becuase the Dodgers can look at cheaper alternatives in Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu instead of Manny. If Manny does not sign with the Dodgers, he will have a tough time finding a team. However, if the Yankees are able to trade one or two of their outfielders, like Matsui and/or Swisher, don’t be surprised if they try to sign Manny as well…

The Dodgers have just signed Claudio Vargas for a 1 year deal.

The Mets have just extended a 3 year offer to free agent pitcher, Derek Lowe. The deal is believed to be for 36 million dollars over 3 years, less years and dollars then Lowe was expecting to garner. I doubt this will be enough to get Lowe, as he was looking for a 4 year deal for 60+ million. However, he might take the lure of NY, their new stadium at Citi Field, and a revitalized bullpen held down by Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz.

The Rockies and Cubs are close to making a deal. The deal would send Jason Marquis and nearly 10 million to the Cubs in exchange for set up man Luis Vizcaino. Vizcaino will only make around 4 million next year. This deal is great for the Cubs, adding Vizcaino to a bullpen with Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol. Marquis gives the Rockies another starter that they were looking to get instead of signing someone like Josh Fogg.

Last year was an awful year for the Braves, they finished 72-90 in the NL East last year. They were already out of the playoffs pretty much by the middle of the year. The Braves made a splash by trading Mark Texeira, landing back Casey Kotchman to play first base. They knew they would not be able to sign him so they dealt him to get something back for him. Kotchman is MLB ready and looks to be a nice 1B in the future, with a good bat and glove. The Braves still do have some of the high profile stars on their team such as Brian McCann and Chipper Jones, mixed in with the young future stars in Jeff Francoeur, Yunel Escober, and Jair Jurrgens. The Braves made a splash this offseason making a deal for Javier Vasquez. To get him though, they gave up a ton in value. They traded prospects Tyler Flowers, Jon Gilmore, and Brent Lillbridge, who were all highly touted prospects. I think they gave up way too much to get Vasquez who has not had a great season since his Expos days. Ever since then he has been overrated and pitched average to slightly above average. He will step in as their ace of a very young, inexperienced staff this year.

Here is their projected position players this year:

C: Brian McCann: No doubt about it, one of the best catchers in the league. Not too much to say about him, he will continue to be on the top of the league and should be an All Star this year.

1B: Casey Kotchman: As stated before, a young player with a good bat and good glove. Last year he hit 14 HRs and 74 RBI, average for a 1B, but he is young and should improve this year as he beomces more familiar with the National League pitching.

2B: Kelly Johnson: Johnson has been a highly coveted player in possible trade talks for the past year. Nothing has materialized, but many teams have inquired about them. He hit .287 last year, and hit 12 HRs and had 69 RBI with 11 SB.  I would expect the same year from him as he didn’t progress stat wise last year from his 2007 campaign.

SS: Yunel Escobar: Yunel had a good year last year for his first full MLB season. He hit .288 with 10 HR with 60 RBI. He was a highly touted prospect so I expect his numbers to rise next year.

3B: Chipper Jones: One of the best 3B in the league, last year Chipper had an amazing first half, nearly hitting .400 for the entire half. He ended the season hitting .364 with 22 HR and 75 RBI. He did get injured or else he would have had an extra 30 games. If he can stay healthy he should have another Chipper season, maybe not hitting .364, but oer .320 with almost 30 HR and 90 RBI wouldn’t be out of the question.

OF: Jeff Francoeur, Matt Diaz, Josh Anderson: Not exactly the trio they are enamored by. After losing Andruw Jones, who held down CF for over 10 years, it has gone downhill. Jeff Francoeur was supposed to break out last year, but all he did was disappoint. Diaz and Anderson are nothing special and can’t be thought of as everyday starters until either of them proves they should be. I would think they would try to make a trade for an OF. They tried to get Nick Swisher from the White Sox before the Yankees got him, so maybe the Yankees will try to deal him if they do not trade Matsui.

Here is their projected rotation for this year:

SP: Javier Vasquez, Jair Jurrgens, Jorge Campillo, JoJo Reyes, Charlie Morton:  This is not exactly the best staff in the world. Vasquez is their new ace, but after that, there is not a bonafide #2 starter. Jurrgens might become one after having a good rookie year, but the next batch of guys, there is a huge dropoff. This staff will have problems getting into the 6th and 7th inning, meaning the bullpen will be worked a bunch this year.

CL: Mike Gonzalez: Mike Gonzalez had a great season in Pittsburgh before he came over to the Braves and then had injury problems. He is very reliable and should be a nice option for them. The rest of their bullpen though, is less to be desired, except for maybe Rafael Soriano and Manny Acosta.

My expectation for the team: I think they will continue to be dismal at best. With the Phillies on a high from the World Series, and the Mets adding to their bullpen, I don’t see the Braves being able to compete. They will probably finish in 4th again as the Marlins always seem to be around .500 and mess up some standings. I think if they eclipsed .500 this year that would be a good year for them.

Buster Olney is now reporting that the Mets and Dodgers likely will not negotiate a trade between Andruw Jones unles Luis Castillo can be involved, as well as the Dodgers paying most of Jones salary. He puts the chances of the Mets even trading Castillo at 50-50. I doubt they will be able to move his 18 million in salary after his dismal year last year and also his injuries and loss of speed.

The Rays right now are not doing anything drastic in the hitters market, although they are eyeing Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, or Garrett Anderson. However, they did sign Matt Joyce to play right field so someone would displace him or be the DH.

Ned Colletti has said that Manny Ramirez is number one on the teams radar. They have not talked to Scott Boras since the Texeira signing. The Dodgers rescinded their original offer of 2 years @ 45 million over a month ago. If Manny does not sign in LA, he might have a problem finding work unless he lessens his price. Also, the Dodgers fallback plan if they can’t sign Manny are either Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu. Both would be cheaper than Manny but the production would be drastically less. The Dodgers are also looking at Jon Garland and Randy Wolf as replacements for the 6 FA pitchers they lost last year.

The Red Sox have attempted to get back former SS prospect, Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez was traded back in 2004 after the Marlins won the world series for Josh Beckett. It was one of those deals that both teams have benefited from. The Marlins gaining a potential MVP and 5 tool star SS, while the Red Sox got an ace starter who they rode to the 2007 World Series last year. The trade talks fell through when the Marlins inquired about both Clay Buccholz and Jacoby Ellsbury. I would have done the trade in a second if it were those 2 for Hanley. Hanley gives them a SS who would overthrow Jeter in the All Star ballots easily, and they would still have Michael Bowden as well as Justin Masterson to fall back on for pitching. The deal would not have been good for my Yankees.

Chris Snyder has just gotten an extension from the Diamondbacks, for 3 years 14.25 million with an option for a 4th year.

That is what is being rumored. Hideki Matsui would go to the Mariners in exchange for Erik Bedard. Bedard would likely come in as a one year rental as he is a free agent after the season. Bedard, who was acquired in a deal from the Orioles for top prospect Adam Jones, as well as George Sherrill, and Chris Tillman, would likely become the 4th or 5th starter. This move would make sense for Bedard because Bedard has been known to be on a strict pitch count and will literally pull himself out of the game if he ecclipses 100 pitches. As a 4th or 5th starter, he would not need to go 7 innings as the ace to carry the team, but giving them five, maybe six strong innings is all they need. Especially considering they have inning eaters in Sabathia and Wang. Bedard did have injuries last year which did set him back, but if he can recover it might be a nice pickup for the Yankees. Matsui, on the other hand, is coming off his injury and would likely DH in New York if he stays there. The Yankees are looking to move an extra outfielder they have, maybe to move salary to get Manny, or to get that last pitcher they are eyeing (instead of signing Pettite). Matsui would replace Raul Ibanez, who signed with the Phillies for a 3 yr / 30 MM deal earlier this month. It would be a great trade for both sides. Not to mention, Ichiro is already in Seattle and he could feel right at home, especially with all the Japanese media that is already in place due to Ichiro.

As the day went on today, more news has broke on where some free agents are looking to land and other suitors for them.

Adam Dunn is now being targetted by the Dodgers. Surprising because they could sign back Manny Ramirez. If Dunn does sign with the Dodgers, Manny will be having a hard time finding work next year unless he becomes cheaper. In addition, the Dodgers are going to open up negotiations with Bobby Abreu. They would be looking to move a big contract, like Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones and his 22 MM for this year if they were to pursue another outfielder. Other teams that have confirmed interest in Dunn are the Cubs, who weretold they are in the lead in the Dunn sweepstakes until the Dodgers came involved. The Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners are also interested in Dunn.

The Mets are interested in Andruw Jones. It is reported that the Dodgers would need to pick up the 20+ million he is owed. Jones is coming off his worst season in which he hit .158, had 3 HRs and 14 RBI. He had a right knee injury which sidelined him. The Dodgers do not seem interested in Luis Castillo, who the Mets desperately want to move to be able to get Orlando Hudson. Jones would step into Ryan Church’s spot and play Right Field.

Derrick Turnbow, who a few years ago had a great year as a closeris being targeted by 3 to 5 teams, including the Marlins, Giants, Phillies, Rays, and Tigers.

The Blue Jays have signed Michael Barrett to a Minor League deal.

Tim Redding is now also being targeted by the Colorado Rockies, who are also looking at Jason Marquis but can not pick up any of the 9 or so million he is owed next year. The Orioles may also be in the run for Redding even after getting Hendrickson today. They are believed to want to pick up 2 starters.

Here is the inaugural post of my “MLB 30 in 30″ segment. First up is the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Last year, the Diamondbacks finished 82-80 in a dismal N.L. West division. They did not make the playoffs, but were in it till the final days in a close race with the Dodgers. You could call it a collapse of sorts, not as quick as the Mets recent collapses, but more over a month time period. Brandon Webb carried their team in the first season posting win after win, but he had a rough streak in August, where he was the loser in many games. His ERA skyrocketed to over 3.00 due to him not being able to get his sinker down and around the plate. This ultimately lost him the CY Young to Tim Lincecum, but that is besides the point. The D-Backs were boasting of a huge lead and almost started to coast and then the Dodgers traded for Manny Ramirez and ultimately overtook them.

After losing Brandon Lyon (FA), and Valverde the year before to the Astros, the D-Backs may be in need of a closer but do have Tony Pena who is a fireballer as well as Jon Rauch, who was a good closer for the Nationals and got traded mid season to the D-Backs. They also picked up Adam Dunn for the playoff run but are not likely to sign him back. They also lost Randy Johnson to free agency and signed with a division opponent in the San Francisco Giants.

Here is their projected position players for next year:

C - Chris Synder: Snyder provides good pop for the D-Backs, hitting 16 HR last year, however he only had a .230 batting average so he is more there for defense and a few good swings throughout the year. They also have Miguel Montero backing him up, who has wound up in possible trade talks to the Red Sox.

1B - Conor Jackson: Jackson finally lived up to his potential last year and surprised many. He posted a .300 batting average, with 12 HR and 75 RBI. A respectable season, but from first base that is definitely below average. Hopefully he can improve his power numbers or else they may need to look elsewhere for 1B help.

2B - Felipe Lopez: Lopez gives a nice little bat for the D-Backs, though he hasn’t repeated his 2005 season with over 20 HRs and 80 RBI. He was injured for 2 years so that plays a part but he is still good to steal 20+ bases.

SS - Stephen Drew: Drew, in his first big league season did fairly well, hitting over 20 HRs, a respectable average of .291. He is one of their stars for the future and shouldn’t disappoint. Many expect a big year from him.

3B - Mark Reynolds: Reynolds is a strikeout machine, having set the record last year with over 200K. He did hit a good share of HR though with 28 and had 97 RBIs. He started out very strong and then cooled off. I expect around the same year, maybe a few less HRs but hopefully a few less K’s as well with some off season help.

OF - Eric Byrnes, Justin Upton, Chris Young: Justin Upton came up last year, still young and raw, but he is a top prospect. He had some MLB experience, starting off hot but after a few weeks, pitchers figured him out. I expect some big things in the coming years from him. Chris Young is becoming a great leadoff hitter, having 32 HR in 2007, only 22 last year, but from a leadoff hitter he does his job. He does need to get his average and OBP up though. They are some of the lowest totals in the league for a leadoff hitter. Eric Byrnes is coming off an injury but if he comes back expect around 20 HR and 70+ RBI.

Here is their expected rotation:

SP: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Doug Davis, Max Scherzer, Yusmerio Petit: Webb and Haren make up a formidable 1-2 combo rivaling the 1-2 combos of the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, etc. The key will be when the other 3 start. Doug Davis is coming off a successful bout at cancer and pitched well after his comeback. Scherzer is their ace in the hole; a top prospect called up last year who did well in his first games of action and then dropped off. He should be a nice #2 or #3 pitcher in the future.

Closer: Who knows at this point. Most likely a mix of Tony Pena and Jon Rauch. Rauch has experience from last year, but they should have pursued a closer this year, especially with the deep relief FA class this year.

My expectations for the team: I expect them to bounce back, and pending the Manny Ramirez situation, they should be right on top in the division, or at least fighting for it. No team will run away with that division, so it will go down to the wire again. They should have around 80-85 wins depending on the young starters. They do need to land a bat, similar to Adam Dunn last year, but they are low on prospects after landing Dan Haren (traded Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, and others). They probably need to win the division to make the playoffs due to the strong east, but they could be a sleeper team, like the Dodgers were this year, making it to the NLCS.

Tomorrow’s Preview: Atlanta Braves